As far as marginal seats go you can’t get any more marginal than the Westminster constituency of Peterborough which is currently being contested following the recall petition of former Labour MP Fiona Onasanv who was convicted of perverting the course of justice over speeding charges.
Political pundits and commentators are predicting that the Brexit Party looks set to win the seat which would see them return their first MP which would have serious ramifications for both the Labour and Conservative Parties, but the question is how so?
Firstly, if the Brexit Party wins as many expect it will, it will further reignite the narrative around the Conservative Party leadership debate to adopt a tougher stance on the withdrawal agreement with many pro Brexit candidates talking about the need to prepare for a no deal Brexit in the event of no further negotiations, but a strategy to out Brexit the Brexit Party will only divide the Conservative Party further, and may have the opposite effect for those pro Brexit candidates.
It is worth noting that over 60% of the electorate in Peterborough voted to leave in the EU referendum compared to just over 30% that voted to remain; therefore, Brexit will be a dominant factor which will shape the outcome of the by- election.
If the results from the EU election are anything to go by the Labour Party will be preparing it’s self for another electoral defeat which will result in more speculation over Jeremy Corbyn’s ability to remain as leader of the Labour Party, following the party’s disastrous performance in the EU election.