A new year, a new decade but the same constitutional debate continues. The political narrative in Scotland has been dominated by the constitution long before the Scottish Independence referendum took place in 2014 and it looks set to continue.
The savvy SNP who have been in power in Scotland for twelve years and emerged as the dominant party following the 2019 election result recognise and understand that not every vote in the 2019 election was a vote for Scottish independence, but understand that people are open to the constitutional debate in a way that was different to 2014, and in turn have shifted their focus from a second referendum to the Scottish parliament having the power when to hold a referendum.
From a strategy perspective this is a stroke of genius as the focus becomes more about the principle of decision making as opposed to a yes versus no referendum, and let’s be honest who in the Scottish Parliament is going to say differently, so think of this as phase one and phase two will be when the Scottish Parliament casts a vote for a second referendum, which will likely take place in 2022 with those in favour winning the vote.
The writing is on the wall and all the signs point towards a second referendum in the next couple of years. Even more so since Richard Leonard, Leader of the Scottish Labour Party, announced that the Scottish Labour Party would not block a second referendum if pro-independence party’s win a majority in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.