The European Parliament election: What does it mean for Scotland and the future of UK politics.


When it comes to elections clarity of message is everything and it has never been more important than now. Tomorrow the United Kingdom will vote in the forthcoming European Parliament election with many suggesting that the outcome of the election will be a pre-cursor for the outcome of a second referendum.

To others, and arguably most of the electorate, this election is about identity in which both leavers and remainers argue that this election is the single most important election in a generation which could dictate the UK’s future relationship with the European Union, but will it do anything to help overcome the Brexit deadlock and the short answer is no.

Yesterday, Theresa May announced the government’s new Brexit deal which was quickly slammed by MP’s from all sides of the chamber and in an attempt to gain support for the proposed withdrawal agreement it was suggested that if MP’s supported the  agreement they would be  allowed to vote on the prospect of a second referendum.

In short, the impasse continues, and the Brexit deadlock tightens even more which will put more pressure on Theresa May to announce her long awaited departure date or if the withdrawal agreement is voted down to resign with immediate effect.

This in turn will result in a Conservative Party leadership contest with Brexit being the main topic of debate at any leadership hustings, and whilst the media has often commented that Boris Johnson, former foreign secretary is the likely frontrunner to succeed Theresa May, its too early to make any solid predictions, but the reality is that a Boris Johnson lead Conservative government would potentially damage the Tory party brand in Scotland that Ruth Davidson successfully de-toxified.

So, what’s likely to be the outcome of the European Parliament election for Scotland? The Scottish National Party (SNP) have been consistent in their pro Europe message and are expected to win three seats in Scotland. Like the SNP, the Scottish Liberal Democrat Party has consistently projected a pro Europe message and are expected to win one seat, with the other two seats split between the Scottish Green Party and the Brexit Party, whilst the Labour and Conservative Parties are expected to not make any gains in tomorrows election.