Welcome to Peterborough: The mother of all marginals

As far as marginal seats go you can’t get any more marginal than the Westminster constituency of Peterborough which is currently being contested following the recall petition of former Labour MP Fiona Onasanv who was convicted of perverting the course of justice over speeding charges.

Political pundits and commentators are predicting that the Brexit Party looks set to win the seat which would see them return their first MP which would have serious ramifications for both the Labour and Conservative Parties, but the question is how so?

Firstly, if the Brexit Party wins as many expect it will, it will further reignite the narrative around the Conservative Party leadership debate to adopt a tougher stance on the withdrawal agreement with many pro Brexit candidates talking about the need to prepare for a no deal Brexit in the event of no further negotiations, but a strategy to out Brexit the Brexit Party will only divide the Conservative Party further, and may have the opposite effect for those pro Brexit candidates.

It is worth noting that over 60% of the electorate in Peterborough voted to leave in the EU referendum compared to just over 30% that voted to remain; therefore, Brexit will be a dominant factor which will shape the outcome of the by- election.

If the results from the EU election are anything to go by the Labour Party will be preparing it’s self for another electoral defeat which will result in more speculation over Jeremy Corbyn’s ability to remain as leader of the Labour Party, following the party’s disastrous performance in the EU election.

For the Labour Party in Scotland to succeed it must embrace change

When Jeremy Corbyn became leader of the Labour Party in 2015, he spoke about straight talking politics and a new kind of politics that would see grassroots party members empowered and decide party policy and direction.

Since then the Scottish Labour Party has suffered a humiliating defeat in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election which resulted in the Scottish Labour Party being replaced by the Scottish Conservatives as the official opposition, a new leader who has failed to breakthrough to the Scottish electorate and who is simply out of touch with the people of Scotland and oversaw a devastating result in the European Parliament election.

In politics clarity of message is everything as people need to know where you stand on the issue of the day and what you intend to do about it, but Labour’s message over Brexit was at best confusing with many people on the door step unsure of what the party’s policy on Brexit was, and lets not forget that Labour party members agreed the party’s position on Brexit at the party’s conference last year, which included the option of pursuing a peoples vote with remain being on the ballot if the party couldn’t secure a general election, and yet party members up and down the country continued to debate the interpretation of the party’s adopted stance on Brexit with both sides claiming victory.

It beggar’s belief that a political party that once dominated Scottish politics could get its messaging catastrophically wrong on what can only be described as the most important political issue of the day, but that’s what happens when party leaders and senior advisers are more interested in winning internal battles than winning the country, the focus becomes inward rather than outward looking and the real losers in this scenario are the people in this country that need a strong Labour voice.

The lack of clarity in labour’s message has created a vacuum that only works to the benefit of other party’s and in Scotland the clear winners of the European Parliament election were the SNP and the Scottish Liberal Democrats who had a consistent pro EU message that resonated well with the Scottish electorate.

It’s worrying that the party that gave Scotland devolution and in turn the Scottish parliament couldn’t convince many of its own members to vote for them with many members voting for a remain party. The question that’s on everyone’s mind, is were does Scottish Labour go from here and what does it have to do to ensure that it doesn’t face electorate irrelevance?

The starting point is for the Labour Party to acknowledge that the electorate has changed, the days of blind party loyalty are over, the electorate is more fluid, some may say it’s nothing more than consumer politics and if that’s the case nobody is buying what Labour has to offer. If the Labour Party was a commercial entity it would take serious action in the face of poor sales by changing tactic, changing strategy and changing leader, and its no different for the Labour party.

For the Labour Party in Scotland to flourish and become a force in Scottish politics again it needs to go back to basics; starting with its vision, what type of Scotland does it want to lead whilst simultaneously making the case for the union and offer radical policies that will set the Labour Party apart from its counter parties.

Resignations, court summons and party expulsion: The week that was.

Neil Findlay MSP resigns from the Scottish Labour front bench

On Tuesday, Neil Findlay resigned from the Scottish Labour Party front bench citing internal battles as his main reason for doing so. In what can only be described as a major blow to Jeremy Corbyn and his Scottish allies, Mr Findlay was instrumental in helping Jeremy Corbyn be elected as leader of the Labour Party.

Mr Findlay who was one of Scottish Labour’s strongest political campaigners spoke about the internal battles in the Scottish Labour Party and further announced that he will not be seeking re-selection for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.

In an interview with BBC Reporting Scotland, Mr Findlay spoke about the party’s poor performance at the European Parliament election and said “I played a part a part in that election and clearly I have some responsibility and I’ve never in my life shirked my responsibility. I have a difficulty with arguing for another referendum because you then open up the whole issue of another referendum in Scotland.

If the next one goes a different way, do you think the people who lose out in that referendum will stop calling for it, we are going to be in absolute neverendum territory.

In a parting shot Mr Findlay said “they’ve never accepted that their candidate lost and its as simple as that. They think their version of politics , if we go back to the era of Tony Blair, if we don a union jack suit and take an ultra-unionist position, that will somehow be the way in which Scottish Labour comes back, we need to win back people who went from labour and voted SNP, and if they think their politics is the way in which that will come back they are seriously deluded .”

Daniel Johnson MSP quits Labour Party front bench

Once tipped as a future leader of the Scottish Labour Party, Daniel Johnson MSP resigned from the Scottish Labour Party front bench and as the party’s spokesperson on justice, following the party’s disastrous result from the European Parliament election Mr Johnson said “I represent a constituency that voted 80 per cent in favour of remain, where over 20,000 people signed the Revoke Article 50 petition and where the electorate voted overwhelmingly for parties that were clearly for remain and pro-Europe. “

This election took Labour from first at the last European election to sixth in Edinburgh. My constituents are clear not only that we must have another referendum but that we must make every effort to ensure the UK remains a member of the EU. That is a view I share.”

Richard Leonard under pressure to resign

Richard Leonard, Leader of the Scottish Labour Party faces mounting pressure to resign as leader following the party’s poor performance in the European Parliament election and the resignations of Daniel Johnson MSP and close ally Neil Findlay MSP.

Boris Johnson summoned to appear in court

On Wednesday it was announced that Boris Johnson MP has been ordered to appear before District Judge Margot Colman for alleged Misconduct in office over the claims that the UK sends the EU £350 million a week.  

Those close to Mr Johnson have said the decision to summon him was “extraordinary and risks undermining our democracy.” District Judge Colman said, "The applicant's case is there is ample evidence that the proposed defendant knew that the statements were false."

She continued: "I accept that the public offices held by Mr Johnson provide status, but with that status comes influence and authority."

 Alastair Campbell expelled from Labour Party

Alastair Campbell, the former spin doctor to prime minister Tony Blair announced that he had voted for the Liberal Democrats in the European Parliament election as a result of the party’s unclear stance over Brexit.

Campbell, who is a strong campaigner for a second referendum and having remain on the ballot was informed by the Labour Party that he had been expelled from the Labour Party for voting for another party.

The decision to expel Mr Campbell resulted in a backlash of former MP’s and party members announcing that they had voted tactically and using the twitter hashtag of #expelmetoo with Mr Campbell announcing that he is likely to appeal the decision.

 James Cleverly MP throws his hat In the ring to become next Conservative Party leader

On Wednesday, James Cleverly MP announced that he would be standing for leader of the Conservative Party. Cleverly, former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party said, “the Conservatives needed to look new and sound different to survive.” A strong advocate of Brexit, cleverly said “once Brexit has been delivered, we need to think about how we can make the Conservatives look new and sound different.”

United we stand divided we fall: The continual saga of the Scottish Labour Party

They say a week is a long time in politics but if yesterday is anything to go by five minutes can change everything. Following Sunday’s disastrous result in the European Parliament election for the Scottish Labour Party, party members and members of the Scottish Executive Committee took to social media condemning the leadership and looking for answers. In response to the dismal performance by the Scottish Labour Party, Neil Findlay the parties campaign chief announced his resignation from the front bench five minutes into the Labour Groups meeting followed by Daniel Johnson MSP resigning as the party’s justice spokesperson.

Findlay, who has been an MSP since 2011 and a fierce critic of the Blairite faction of the Scottish Labour Party played an instrumental role in getting Jeremy Corbyn elected in 2015 as Labour Party leader. In an interview with Reporting Scotland Mr Findlay said “I played a part in that election and clearly I have some responsibility and I’ve never in my life shirked my responsibility. I have a difficulty with arguing for another referendum because you then open up the whole issue of another referendum in Scotland.

If the next one goes a different way, do you think the people who lose out in that referendum will stop calling for it; we’re going to be in absolute neverendum territory. 

In a parting shot Mr Findlay concluded by saying “they’ve never accepted their candidates lost and it’s as simple as that. They think their version of politics, If we go back to the era of Tony Blair , if we don a union jack suit and take an ultra-unionist position, that will somehow be the way in which Scottish Labour comes back, we need to win back people who went from Labour and voted SNP, and if they think they’re politics is the way in which that will come back they are seriously deluded”.

So, what does Neil Findlay’s resignation from the front bench mean for the Scottish Labour Party? Firstly, Richard Leonard will be tasked with finding a replacement for Findlay and this won’t be an easy task. 

Last year, Richard Leonard sacked Anas Sarwar and Jackie Bailie from the front bench and its unlikely that former Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont will serve in his cabinet.  So that leaves Mark Griffin MSP, Jenny Marra MSP and Neil Bibby MSP as the only contenders to fill the current void, but irrespective of who is selected for the positions, one thing that is certain is that Richard Leonard will continue to face mounting pressure for his resignation with strong rumours of a leadership challenge in the coming weeks.

The week that was

Milkshakes, elections, resignations, leadership speculation

Theresa May announces departure date

On Friday Theresa May announced her departure date for the 7th June when she will step down as prime minister. In what can only be described as an emotional farewell speech Theresa May said “I will shortly leave the job that it has been the honour of my life to hold. The second female prime minister but certainly not the last. I do so with no ill will, but with enormous and enduring gratitude to have had the opportunity to serve the country I love.”

European Parliament election

On Thursday the United Kingdom took part in the European Parliament election and although the result won’t be announced till Sunday it’s expected that both the Conservative and Labour Party will not return any MEP candidates in Scotland.

Andrea Leadsom resigns from Government

On the night before the European Parliament election, Andrea Leadsom resigned from the government as Leader of the House saying she no longer believes that the government can deliver Brexit. In what many will perceive as the firing pistol for a leadership challenge, Ms Leadsom was critical over the governments handling and inability to deliver Brexit arguing that she did not believe “the UK would be a truly sovereign United Kingdom through the deal that is now proposed"

Ruth Davidson says she can work with Boris Johnson as leader of Conservative Party

On Wednesday, The Scotsman reported that Ruth Davidson, Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party said she would be willing to work with Boris Johnson if he becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson who is seen as the front runner to replace Theresa May announced his intention to stand as a leadership candidate last week, but in the words of Tory stalwart, Ken Clark MP “historically the Tory front runner usually never wins the leadership contest.”

Milkshake Monday

On Monday, Nigel Farage, Leader of Brexit Party attended a rally in Newcastle which ended in a milkshake being thrown at him. Milkshake aside, the Brexit Party is predicted to make significant gains in the European Parliament election.

Hancock’s half hour

Matt Hancock announced on Saturday that he intends to stand in the forthcoming Conservative Party leadership contest. At a dinner with four cabinet ministers and party donors, Mr Hancock said that he is the candidate that can take the party into the next general election and win.

The European Parliament election: What does it mean for Scotland and the future of UK politics.

When it comes to elections clarity of message is everything and it has never been more important than now. Tomorrow the United Kingdom will vote in the forthcoming European Parliament election with many suggesting that the outcome of the election will be a pre-cursor for the outcome of a second referendum.

To others, and arguably most of the electorate, this election is about identity in which both leavers and remainers argue that this election is the single most important election in a generation which could dictate the UK’s future relationship with the European Union, but will it do anything to help overcome the Brexit deadlock and the short answer is no.

Yesterday, Theresa May announced the government’s new Brexit deal which was quickly slammed by MP’s from all sides of the chamber and in an attempt to gain support for the proposed withdrawal agreement it was suggested that if MP’s supported the  agreement they would be  allowed to vote on the prospect of a second referendum.

In short, the impasse continues, and the Brexit deadlock tightens even more which will put more pressure on Theresa May to announce her long awaited departure date or if the withdrawal agreement is voted down to resign with immediate effect.

This in turn will result in a Conservative Party leadership contest with Brexit being the main topic of debate at any leadership hustings, and whilst the media has often commented that Boris Johnson, former foreign secretary is the likely frontrunner to succeed Theresa May, its too early to make any solid predictions, but the reality is that a Boris Johnson lead Conservative government would potentially damage the Tory party brand in Scotland that Ruth Davidson successfully de-toxified.

So, what’s likely to be the outcome of the European Parliament election for Scotland? The Scottish National Party (SNP) have been consistent in their pro Europe message and are expected to win three seats in Scotland. Like the SNP, the Scottish Liberal Democrat Party has consistently projected a pro Europe message and are expected to win one seat, with the other two seats split between the Scottish Green Party and the Brexit Party, whilst the Labour and Conservative Parties are expected to not make any gains in tomorrows election.